Main themes for 2009

1. I believe that the global slump will continue with no signs of improvement during the whole 2009
2. Retailers, financials, "commodity currencies" are perfect shorts
3. Euro will lose its role as the "second" reserve currency because of the troubles with many economies from the eurozone. Euro - a potential short in March or May
4. UK economy is beyond repair. TO DO: find a suitable way to short the Pound. So far the main candidates are GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (later in the year)
5. Black-Scholes option model has exploitable holes. Especially when its derivatives are used to price exotic options. Endless opportunities abound.
6. Heating Oil, Gasoline RBOB and GAS OIL are ideal commodities for simple but effective daytrading momentum strategies. Unbelievable good results so far.

So far, that's it. I will elaborate on some of the topics later.

It was a very-very-very bad year

Hi all,

It was a very-very-very bad year. A kind of year that takes your whole life and shatters it, breaks it into pieces.

The wounds of this year are going to haunt me fort he rest of my life and the scars will remain with me forever. Bad decisions, ugly and morally questionable actions, plain stupidity, all converged in a perfect storm... a special "thanks" goes to all the people who have conspired to make my life as miserable as possible. I will learn to forgive although I will not be able to forget.

I am happy to be alive, breathing, regaining faith. This place, starting from January the 9th will be the diary of my road back to happy days and sanity. Hopefully there will be spectators around to enjoy the show.

What to expect in 2009:

Market and macroeconomical analysis
Position reports
Thoughts on trading strategies and trading in general

Happy New Year to everyone!

pupkinus

trade update

The strike level of 1.9950 has been hit - loss taken = 14 points. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose :)

just for fun

That's a risky one but just for the fun I sold a one-month binary one-touch on GBP/USD strike 1.9950 expiring on March 31st for 86 points. It's highly risky but I see strong resistance at 1.9940 and if it is not touched in the next 48 hours - GBP will be much lower, thus allowing me to cover at a good rate.

trade of the week

Bought a European GBP/USD put, strike 1.9850 , exp. 7th March, for 117 points early this European session.

looking for uncorrelated trades

Me is contemplating potential trades for the following week. Astounded at the correlations between different asset classes that used to be uncorrelated or correlated loosely. Now, almost every trade I study is likely to be correlated with some position I have already. Me is contemplating exotic assets like rapeseed, carbon emissions or ISK.... Any ideas?

update

On GBP/CHF short:

the las target has been hit. position is closed at 213.70
I wish every trade I put on went as smooth as this one.