It was a very-very-very bad year

Hi all,

It was a very-very-very bad year. A kind of year that takes your whole life and shatters it, breaks it into pieces.

The wounds of this year are going to haunt me fort he rest of my life and the scars will remain with me forever. Bad decisions, ugly and morally questionable actions, plain stupidity, all converged in a perfect storm... a special "thanks" goes to all the people who have conspired to make my life as miserable as possible. I will learn to forgive although I will not be able to forget.

I am happy to be alive, breathing, regaining faith. This place, starting from January the 9th will be the diary of my road back to happy days and sanity. Hopefully there will be spectators around to enjoy the show.

What to expect in 2009:

Market and macroeconomical analysis
Position reports
Thoughts on trading strategies and trading in general

Happy New Year to everyone!

pupkinus

trade update

The strike level of 1.9950 has been hit - loss taken = 14 points. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose :)

just for fun

That's a risky one but just for the fun I sold a one-month binary one-touch on GBP/USD strike 1.9950 expiring on March 31st for 86 points. It's highly risky but I see strong resistance at 1.9940 and if it is not touched in the next 48 hours - GBP will be much lower, thus allowing me to cover at a good rate.

trade of the week

Bought a European GBP/USD put, strike 1.9850 , exp. 7th March, for 117 points early this European session.

looking for uncorrelated trades

Me is contemplating potential trades for the following week. Astounded at the correlations between different asset classes that used to be uncorrelated or correlated loosely. Now, almost every trade I study is likely to be correlated with some position I have already. Me is contemplating exotic assets like rapeseed, carbon emissions or ISK.... Any ideas?

update

On GBP/CHF short:

the las target has been hit. position is closed at 213.70
I wish every trade I put on went as smooth as this one.

trade update

On GBP/CHF first and second targets are hit. SL moved to 215.50 , on touch of 213.70 the position will be closed.

adjustment

Short on GBP/CHF - stop loss moved to breakeven.

trade of the week

Short GBP/CHF @ 217.50 stop 218.70 target 1 - 216.50 , target 2 - 215.00, target 3 - 213.70
wish me luck.

Time to buy some SPY puts

The title says it all... some rationale for the trade will be posted later...

Fundamental analysis performed by a technical analysis addict

You can see at the right my potfolio at fool.com

I do not use fundamental analysis at my day-to-day trading but I wanted to check my stock-picking from the fundamental point of view.

I look at no chart, just fundamental macroeconomic factors. Hope I won't have to blush for this portofolio. Anyway keep in mind that I am a much better technical than fundamental trader :)

Maybe I will explain some rationale behind these positions. Maybe not. Depends on my time and mood. If dear readers have any questions - go ahead and ask them in the comments. I'll try to answer as fast as possible.

old traders' jokjes

You can recognize a former markermaker working as a car salesman by asking him the price of the car. You can bet he'll give you a bid/ask.

A female fx dealer on a date:
Man: if you don't mind me asking, how old are you?
Woman: 25/29
Man: What?
Woman: Oh, well... 26/28
Man: I don't understand...
Woman: Ok, darling, just for you: 27/27 - CHOICE!

The fate of the US consumer

There is a widespread argument that the falling USD will not affect domestic prices in the US.
This assumption is wrong. I could list some arguments but Mr. Santelli can save me some minutes of typing. Enjoy!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1COpXKaYWk&feature=related

Me is contemplating shorting US retailers.... Stocks are not my "weapon of choice" when it comes to speculations but in this case I may try it....

Welcome

Welcome to the Skeptical Speculator HQ.

In case you're wondering about the topics of the posts here I'll make a short list of things that are interesting to me:

1. Speculation in Financial Markets
2. Economy
3. Technical Analysis
4. Miscellaneous Trading Humor
5. Electrical Energy Derivatives (pricing, modeling, hedging strategies etc.)